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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers rising in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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